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Social Science

A collection of 90 issues

Unlisted False Negatives: Are 11% Americans Unlisted?

A recent study by Simon Jackman and Bradley Spahn claims that 11% of Americans are ‘unlisted.’ (The paper has since been picked up by liberal media outlets like the Think Progress.) When I first came across the paper, I thought that the number was much too high for it to

21 Aug 2015 1 min read

Where's the news? Classifying News Domains

We select an initial universe of news outlets (i.e., web domains) via the Open Directory Project (ODP, dmoz.org), a collective of tens of thousands of editors who hand-label websites into a classification hierarchy. This gives 7,923 distinct domains labeled as: news, politics/news, politics/media, and regional/

23 Jul 2015 2 min read

Partisan Retrospection?: Partisan Gaps in Retrospection are Highly Variable

The difference between partisans’ responses on retrospection items is highly variable, ranging from over 40% to nearly 0. For instance, in 1988, nearly 30% fewer Democrats than Republicans reported that the inflation rate between 1980 and 1988 had declined. (It had.) However, a similar proportion of Republicans and Democrats got

11 Jun 2015 1 min read

Estimating Hillary's Missing Emails

Note: 55000/(365*4) ~ 37.7. That seems a touch low for Sec. of state. Caveats: 1. Clinton may have used more than one private server 2. Clinton may have sent emails from other servers to unofficial accounts of other state department employees Lower bound for missing emails from Clinton:

11 Apr 2015 1 min read

Some Hard Feelings: Feelings Towards Some Racial and Ethnic Groups in 4 Countries

According to YouGov surveys in Switzerland, Netherlands and Canada, and the 2008 ANES in the US, Whites, on average, in each of the four countries feel fairly coldly — giving an average thermometer rating of less than 50 on a 0 to 100 scale — toward Muslims, and people from Muslim-majority regions

07 Aug 2014 1 min read

Tale of Two Scandals: Impact of Benghazi and IRS Scandals on Obama Approval

Obama Approval Over Benghazi and IRS Scandals Note that the x-axis covers a fair bit of time. So even if you were to imagine month or two long lag between the time the scandal breaks and public opinion changes, interpretation doesn’t change.

07 Aug 2014 1 min read

Mean Ideology of State Congressional Delegations Over the Years

Mean Ideology of R and D State Delegations:

10 Jul 2014 1 min read

Liberal Politicians are Referred to More Often in News

The median Democrat referred to in television news is to the left of the House Democratic Median, and the median Republican politician referred to is to the left of the House Republican Median. Click here for the aggregate distribution. And here’s a plot of top 50 politicians cited in

07 Jul 2014 1 min read

Cable Ownership by DMA by Race Over the Years

28 Jun 2014 1 min read

Error Free Multi-dimensional Thinking

Some recent research suggests that Americans’ policy preferences are highly constrained, with a single dimension able to correctly predict over 80% of the responses (see Jessee 2009, Tausanovitch and Warshaw 2013). Not only that, adding a new (orthogonal) dimension doesn’t improve prediction success by more than a couple of

01 May 2014 3 min read

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